Embraer delivered 75 aircraft during the fourth quarter of 2023, including 49 executive jets, 25 commercial jets, and one C-390 military jet. For the full year, the company’s deliveries totaled 181 aircraft, an increase of 13 percent from 160 in 2022.

• READ MORE: Embraer Deliveries Up 30 Percent in Third Quarter

The Executive Aviation unit ended the year with a total of 74 light jets delivered, marking a 12 percent increase over 2022 and the highest volume in seven years. Deliveries of medium jets rose 14 percent to 41 aircraft. The backlog grew by $400 million to $4.3 billion.

Embraer’s Defense & Security unit won a deal to supply its C-390 Millennium military transport jets to South Korea, making that country the first C-390 customer in Asia. Last year Austria and the Czech Republic also selected the C-390 in 2023, as did the Netherlands in 2022.

• READ MORE: South Korea to Buy Embraer C-390 for Military Transport

The Commercial Aviation unit reported a 12 percent increase in deliveries of E-Jet aircraft to 64. Within the E-Jet family, deliveries of the E2 models more than doubled to 39 aircraft in 2023. The backlog rose to 298 aircraft, or a total of $8.8 billion. Highlights for the year included the Canadian carrier Porter Airlines placing an order for 25 E195-E2 passenger jets, adding to previous existing firm orders for 50 aircraft.

Embraer’s Services & Support business backlog grew to $3.1 billion in 2023, its highest-ever level. The company said growth momentum benefited from its earlier announcement of a deal that has doubled its maintenance service capacity for executive jets in the U.S. The expansion includes the addition of three executive aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) facilities at Dallas Love Field, Texas (KDAL); Cleveland, Ohio (KCLE); and Sanford, Florida (KSFB).

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Net income for the recent quarter rose 1.3 percent to $1 billion, or $3.64 diluted earnings per share, compared with $992 million, or $3.58 per diluted share. Revenue increased 7.5 percent to $11.7 billion.

• READ MORE: Engine Certification Brings Gulfstream G700, G800 Closer to Market Debut

For the full year, net income totaled $3.3 billion, or $12.02 per diluted share, compared with 3.4 billion or $12.19 per diluted share. Revenue increased 7.3 percent to $42.3 billion from $39.4 billion in 2022.

“We had a solid fourth quarter, capping off a year that saw growth in all four segments and continued strong cash flow,” said Phebe Novakovic, chairman and CEO of General Dynamics.

During a call with analysts, however, Novakovic noted that results for the quarter and year are “4 and 9 cents below consensus. This miss was exclusively because G700 did not certify before year-end,” she said, adding that the delay “deprived us of slightly over $1 billion of revenue and $250 million in earnings.”

• READ MORE: Gulfstream G700 Sets Speed Records During 20-Country Tour

In the company’s aerospace business, which includes Gulfstream, orders totaled $3.2 billion, resulting in a 4.8 percent increase in backlog to $20.5 billion. Across all of its operations, which include marine systems, combat systems, and technologies, year-end backlog grew to $93.6 billion, which is the highest in the company’s history.

Novakovic said customers whose G700s have been completed should anticipate delivery soon. “We have 15 airplanes ready to go, and the hope is that we deliver them this quarter,” she said.

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New business aircraft operators account for 500 of the sales from 2024 to 2033, increasing fleet
utilization by about 6 percent. Nineteen percent of existing business jet operators say that they will replace or add aircraft in their fleets in the next five years, accounting for more than 4,000 new aircraft deliveries.This is almost three times the replacement rate operators planned from 2010 to 2020. The purchasing expectation expectation also is 2 points higher than in 2022, reflecting operators’ optimism about the state of the industry and world economy. Almost two-thirds of respondents say they will fly as much in 2024 as they did in 2023. Twenty-nine percent say they will fly more hours next year. The overall size of the fleet will grow by 3 percent, according to Honeywell.

During the next five years, 64 percent of new aircraft will be delivered to North American customers, 14 percent to European operators and 11 percent to Asia-Pacific. Deliveries to the Middle East and Africa increase to 6 percent, but Latin America declines to 5 percent of global deliveries.

Jimenez-Serrano says that while fractional aircraft operators are not part of the survey, inputs from Part 91K operators, among other sources, help bolster the accuracy of the forecast. Sample size this year was a scant 100 operators, down from more than 1,500 in previous years. However, the Honeywell data closely parallels the projections of Rolland Vincent Associates of Plano, Texas, long considered one of the most credible market research firms in the business aviation industry. Jimenez-Serrano concedes that sampling error could approach +/-5 percent with only 100 respondents.

Working Through Backlogs, Supply Chain Recovery

The next three years will witness a strong surge in deliveries, as the supply chain fully recovers from the COVID slump and OEMs work off order backlogs. OEMs missed 350 deliveries from 2020 to 2022 because of COVID-induced supply chain snags. Deliveries plateau somewhat in 2028 and 2029 before slowly increasing to 930 deliveries in 2022. Jimenez-Serrano notes that total estimated deliveries during the next decade will be the highest in nearly a decade.

Midsize and super-midsize aircraft deliveries should increase about 15 percent in 2024. Long term, large cabin and ultra-long range aircraft deliveries, while only representing about 10 percent of the total, account for 69 percent of the sales revenues during the next five years. Jimenez-Serrano notes that Gulfstream’s GVII series, G400, G500 and G600, plus the Dassault Falcon 6X in the large cabin class, along with the Bombardier Global 7500/8000, Dassault Falcon 10X, and Gulfstream G700/G800, are well positioned to capitalize on this surge.

Honeywell’s Take on Sustainability

Sustainability increasingly is on the minds of business aircraft operators, with two-thirds of respondents saying they plan to embrace or increase efforts to reduce emissions. Current steps include flying fewer missions and using the airlines in lieu of their own business jets. Only 12 percent presently use biojet. Longer term, 39 percent say they plan to use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and another 28 percent will buy carbon offset credits.

But, jet fuel suppliers have been slow to increase production of SAF to meet a sharp increase in demand from both business aircraft operators and the airlines. The civil jet industry consumes nearly 100-billion gallons per year and SAF production amounts to only 100-million gallons. David Shilliday, vice president and general manager of Honeywell Power Systems, believes that the industry can boost output to 10-billion gallons per year by 2030, using existing refineries and feed stocks. If the industry is going to make the transition to 100 percent SAF by 2050, Shilliday believes that major U.S. federal government investment will be needed to help jet fuel suppliers achieve that goal. Without government aid, it’s unlikely that large scale increases in feedstock supply, SAF production and cost-per-gallon affordability can be achieved.

The post Honeywell Releases 2023 Business Aviation Market Forecast appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

That’s news enough, really.

Served up with the best weather I’ve seen since 1995 when I first made the journey—after a propelling cold front pushed through a monster storm last Saturday—OSH22 popped with news. Our time reporting on the event began Sunday with preview gatherings at Cirrus (hello, crazy busy) and Redbird (hello, latest sims). Monday was already scheduled back-to-back for our team—and new press conferences mushroomed up throughout the day.

By the time I made it back to our rental house on Lake Winnebago on Wednesday night, I was no longer certain of my ability to form coherent sentences in English. But that was from a landslide of positive news and the excitement of seeing so many beloved members of our aviation family again.

The Big News?

If you judge by the traffic on FLYING’s website, Daher’s Kodiak 900 captured a lot of interest—and the crowds around Van’s Aircraft’s new RV-15 flying prototype surely indicated an appetite for the latest models. Both were significant enough departures from those manufacturer’s current lineups to affirm that the drive towards new products is vital to a company’s long-term success.

But in my one-on-one conversations with leaders at Cirrus, Icon, Tecnam, and others, something else unfolded. 

Cirrus unveiled its SR G6 update for 2022 back in January but it represented tweaks on the sixth-generation airplane as opposed to anything earth-shattering. Cirrus’s Todd Simmons, president of customer experience, talked about the company’s backlog of 24 to 36 months—one of its largest that he could recall. It materialized as Cirrus simply continued to market its current line of aircraft, including the SR20 and SF50 Vision Jet as well. 

• READ MORE: FLYING‘s Full Coverage of EAA AirVenture 2022

Most notable? For a company that attracts new entrants to the market as part of its secret sauce, Cirrus has witnessed a steep rise in position holders who are complete newbs to general aviation. Thirty percent of the position holders in that order book have never been a pilot before, said Simmons—double the percentage Cirrus normally sees. Those owners-to-be are working on a private pilot certificate while waiting on their airplane.

Jerry Meyer, CEO of Icon Aircraft, also reported a healthy state of the order book, with an evolution of its original A5 model. They’re booking well into 2023—a good place for the company, according to Meyer. While they wait for certain enabling changes such as the updates to be seen with MOSAIC, they’re introducing options like a new trailer, to make the ownership experience fuller. 

Tecnam’s director of sales David Copeland walked me around the latest version of the P2010, the Gran Lusso, and he had me sit inside to get a full taste of the interior refinements made to the four-seat, single-engine piston machine. While it goes for a price similar to that of the Tecnam twin, the P2006T—$626,750—the two stand apart in look and feel. And Copeland says no one believes him when he tells them the airplane can make its maximum speed of 143 ktas on less than 6 gph. I’ll be testing that out for all of us next month when we meet up for a test flight.

Each of these companies came to AirVenture selling iterations on their existing product lines. All three are expanding their manufacturing facilities to accommodate the growth they’ve seen in the last two years. 

Legacy OEMs are capitalizing on the moment too. Piper has plans for electrifying its Archer, but it has been successfully adding flight training organizations to its roster with only incremental changes to its products, like the Pilot 100i. The upward trajectory in flight training has worked out well for its tried-and-true design.

One of the greatest “iterators” of all—Textron Aviation and its Cessna and Beechcraft brands—displayed a beautiful, classic Skylane on its Oshkosh line—but it’s still a 182. And it’s selling because you can pay almost as much for a 2010 model as the brand-spanking-new one.

Across the Spectrum

The drumbeat of the healthy order book continued throughout the flight line, with used aircraft for sale still showing incredible price increases from years past. There’s no doubt this activity in the marketplace makes some turn to a new airplane when they can take advantage of tax incentives, warranty programs, financing, and (let’s face it) the joy of having a new airplane.

Pilots at the show came in a buying mode across the spectrum as well.

Aerox’s Scott Ashton sold out of product in the first half of the week—the company’s portable oxygen systems left the exhibit hangar in the arms of pilots who seemed not to be bothered by any premium cost, according to Ashton. Barry Knuttila, CEO of King Schools, shared that the pilot training company was seeing some of its best months ever—another beneficiary of the increase in student pilots.

By and large, the people who are flying grumble about the cost of avgas, but they’re still flying. At least they flew into Oshkosh this year—aircraft parking went all the way to the southern fence, it seemed, and there were several times during the week when the field closed to additional aircraft. With the weekend left to go, the official AirVenture numbers haven’t been released, but after conversations with EAA folks, I expect them to be as healthy as 2019, at the very least.

People are getting into personal aviation, learning to fly, buying airplanes—but not just the very newest. They’re buying, period, and that bodes well for our industry.

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