According to the company, United will take delivery of up to 1 million gallons of Neste MY SAFE in 2024 with the first load arriving in August.

• READ MORE: Signature Aviation Pumping Blended SAF at LAX Terminal

SAF is an alternative to conventional jet fuel designed to be more environmentally friendly than fossil fuel. Created from renewable resources, such as reclaimed cooking oil and feed stocks, it can reduce carbon emissions by up to 85 percent on a lifecycle basis, according to Neste. SAF can be used in unmodified aircraft engines and fuel delivery systems

United is a chief advocate for legislation to grow the SAF market. The airline has been instrumental in helping secure SAF tax credits in Illinois, as well as Washington, Colorado, and California that encourage airports to purchase SAF.

• READ MORE: Boeing Ready to Buy 7.5 Million Gallons of SAF

United is one of the founders of the SAF Coalition, which is described as a consortium of more than 40 airlines, aircraft operators, agricultural enterprises, aircraft and aircraft equipment manufacturers, airports, technology developers, labor unions, and biofuel producers. Its mission is to expand the use of SAF and reduce the reliance on fossil fuels.

In addition to Chicago, the airline has now purchased SAF for airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco, London, and Amsterdam.

“I’m pleased to see United Airlines making this significant move forward by using sustainable aviation fuel daily in flights from O’Hare,” U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) said in a statement. “One of the most important things we can do to make American aviation more sustainable is increase the supply of SAF. At the federal level, I’ve been pushing for the increased use of SAF, and I’m going to keep pushing to increase the supply of American-grown, American-made SAF, a true win-win solution that supports domestic farmers and blenders while reducing our nation’s carbon footprint.”

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker echoed the enthusiasm, noting that KORD is one of the busiest hub airports in the United States.

“Illinois’ position as a hub of innovation with some of the most connected airports in the country perfectly aligns with the work of companies like United to build a more sustainable future for travel and reach our shared goal of zero emissions,” Pritzker said.

United Airlines president Brett Hart said tax incentives in Illinois made SAF availability at the airport possible.

“While the market for SAF is still in its infancy, there is a huge opportunity today for airlines and policymakers to work together to support its continued growth,” Hart said.

SAF purchased for United’s fleet is paid for in part through the company’s Eco-Skies Alliance, which allows participating companies to share the “green premium,” or the cost associated with purchasing lower-emission fuels. Since 2021, the alliance has collectively contributed toward the purchase of more than 10.5 million gallons of SAF, according to the company.

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Oscar, well-known for his affinity for trash, has been dubbed United’s chief trash officer and is helping the airline educate the public about sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). 

SAF is made primarily of waste products, such as used cooking oil and agricultural waste feedstocks. According to United, it can be used in combination with conventional fuel in aircraft in accordance with current blending requirements, resulting in lower carbon dioxide emissions.

• READ MORE: Biden Administration Defines ‘Climate-Smart’ SAF Subsidy Program

“SAF is one of the ways we’re planning to reduce our carbon footprint across United’s fleet,” the company said. “Investing in and using more SAF across the entire airline industry will help fly us all toward a lower carbon future.”

Since SAF is basically created from garbage, it made sense to have a trash expert like Oscar to be the company spokesperson for the effort.

• READ MORE: Boeing Ready to Buy 7.5 Million Gallons of SAF

The Muppets are an ensemble cast of puppet characters created in the 1960s by Jim Henson and Jon Stone. Oscar is a fluffy green creature with bushy dark eyebrows that gave him a permanent scowl. He spends most of his time seated in a garbage can and extolling the virtues of trash.

• READ MORE: Signature Aviation Pumping Blended SAF at LAX Terminal

United has several short videos starring Oscar the Grouch, beginning with one that shows how he saw a newspaper advertisement for a chief trash officer. With his 30-plus years of experience, how could he miss?

In other videos he plays opposite actual United employees who are excited about the use of SAF at the airline. He interacts with flight crews, sends junk mail to everyone in the world to let them know about United’s plans to power its airplanes on fuel made from waste materials. In another, he has a Zoom meeting with a Generation Z coworker with a sunny and upbeat disposition who wants to know how to spread the word that United is committed to lowering its carbon emissions by using SAF.

The campaign marks the latest SAF initiative for the airline. In February, Embraer announced it would join United Airlines Ventures’ Sustainable Flight Fund, an investment program aimed at increasing the supply of SAF through investment in related startup companies. The airline and its 22 corporate partners have committed more than $200 million to invest in companies working to decarbonize air travel. 

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“This is a transformative time for Signature, and our partnership with Neste is helping us take another significant step towards net zero by providing a 100 percent supply of blended SAF at our Los Angeles location,” said Derek DeCross, chief commercial officer at Signature Aviation. “This collaboration exemplifies how we’re working together with both our guests and our partners to accelerate the adoption of environmentally friendly practices and paving the way for a more sustainable future in aviation.”

• READ MORE: Boeing Ready to Buy 7.5 Million Gallons of SAF

The blended SAF offering provided by Signature at its LAX location includes 30 percent of Neste MY SAF and 70 percent conventional jet fuel, enabling partners to achieve a 24 percent decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from air travel. SAF is approved for use blended up to 50 percent with conventional jet fuel.

Neste’s SAF is made from sustainably sourced, 100 percent renewable waste and residue raw materials, such as used cooking oil and animal fat waste. 

Signature and Neste have been in a partnership since 2020 designed to help accelerate the industry’s adoption of SAF. Signature plans to expand the availability of Neste MY SAF to the rest of its California locations. Neste is expanding its SAF production capability to 515 million gallons of SAF annually in 2024 to meet the growing demand.

Signature said it recently passed the 30 million-gallon mark in terms of total SAF delivered throughout its network, describing it as a substantial leap toward reducing carbon emissions and helping the aviation industry reach net zero by 2050.

• READ MORE: Business Aviation Industry Groups Aim to Speed Adoption of SAF

“We are proud to continue expanding our collaboration with committed partners like Signature Aviation, who recognize the key role sustainable aviation fuel can play in reducing GHG emissions from air travel,” said Carrie Song, senior vice president of commercial renewable products at Neste. “Offering blended Neste MY Sustainable Aviation Fuel to all of its customers at LAX is a shining example of how the business aviation community can work together with fuel producers to accelerate SAF adoption and emission reductions.”

The transition to SAF at KLAX was completed on April 1. It is the second location on the West Coast to offer the more environmentally friendly fuel. The first Signature location to provide SAF was San Francisco International Airport (KSFO).

In addition, the growth in SAF availability at Signature LAX will also expand the location’s role as a key component in Signature’s book-and-claim program. Under the program, travelers and operators are able to purchase SAF in areas where it isn’t physically available.

“When an operator utilizes book and claim, they are able to claim the environmental benefit, while the physical SAF is provided for different aircraft at Signature LAX,” Signature said.

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The corn is now used to make ethanol, which is added to gasoline, but the move to electric cars will diminish that market. Ethanol can be turned into jet-A, however, and will cut the carbon footprint of jet fuel.

• READ MORE: Boeing Ready to Buy 7.5 Million Gallons of SAF

The administration is proposing subsidies from $1.25 to $1.75 a gallon for farmers but only if they meet some conditions.

The farmers will have to use “climate-smart” farming practices, including the use of approved fertilizers. The resulting fuel must cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least half compared to jet-A made from fossil fuels.

• READ MORE: Business Aviation Industry Groups Aim to Speed Adoption of SAF

The measures were met with approval from the farm community, but environmentalists are less enthusiastic. They are concerned a flood of ethanol-based SAF will hinder development of fuels that are even greener that the corn-based product.

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared on AVweb.

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IndiGo is India’s largest airline, flying 100 million passengers in 2023.

“We are delighted to partner with Rolls-Royce for their future-ready Trent XWB engines as we expand our widebody aircraft fleet with an agreement to order a new fleet of A350-900 aircraft,” said Pieter Elbers, CEO of IndiGo. 

• READ MORE: IndiGo Places Record Airbus Order

According to Rolls-Royce, the Trent XWB is the “world’s most efficient large aero engine in service,” offering a 15 percent fuel consumption advantage over the first generation of Trent engines. 

The engine also “goes farther on less fuel” and is certified to operate on a 50 percent sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blend. The Trent XWB has also been proven compatible with 100 percent SAF for the future, the company said.

• READ MORE: India’s Prime Minister Takes Flight in Tejas Fighter

“This substantial order from IndiGo for our Trent XWB-84 engines is a great win for Rolls-Royce,” said Ewen McDonald, chief customer officer at Rolls-Royce. “It reaffirms the position of the Trent XWB as the future-ready, engine of choice among airline operators.” 

The post IndiGo Places Order for 60 Rolls-Royce Engines appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

The purchase marks Boeing’s largest annual SAF purchase to date, 60 percent more than in 2023, Neste said.

“Sustainable aviation fuel is essential to decarbonize aviation,” Ryan Faucett, vice president of environmental sustainability at Boeing, said in a statement. “About 20 percent of our fuel usage is a SAF blend, and we continue to increase our use of this fuel to encourage growth in the SAF industry. We are also working to make SAF more available and affordable to our commercial airline customers through collaboration, investment, research, and policy development.”

• READ MORE: Business Aviation Industry Groups Aim to Speed Adoption of SAF

SAF is a renewable aviation fuel consisting of 30 percent renewable waste and residue raw materials, such as fats, oils, and greases used in cooking, which is blended with 70 percent conventional jet fuel. 

According to Neste, the use of SAF reduces greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80 percent over the fuel’s life cycle, compared to using conventional jet fuel.

The total volume of blended SAF purchased will be supplied to Boeing’s commercial operations directly or through a book-and-claim system, according to the company. Four million gallons of blended SAF are destined for Boeing fuel farms in the Pacific Northwest. EPIC Fuels, a Signature Aviation company, will supply 2.5 million gallons and Avfuel will provide 1.5 million gallons of blended SAF from Neste. 

This latest order will be used to support the Boeing ecoDemonstrator program and Boeing’s U.S. commercial operational flights through 2024.

Boeing will also purchase SAF certificates corresponding to the emission reduction provided by the use of 3.5 million gallons of Neste-produced blended SAF produced through a book-and-claim system.

• READ MORE: Jet Aviation Signs Deal with World Fuel Services to Sell SAF at 2 More FBOs

Book and Claim 

Book and claim is an accounting process in which a company purchases SAF certificates to displace conventional jet fuel. Instead of putting the fuel into a Boeing fuel farm, distributors will deliver it to nearby airports for use by airlines and other carriers, ensuring the corresponding SAF use and related greenhouse gas emission reductions.

“Sustainable aviation fuel is a key lever to reduce aviation emissions,” said Carrie Song, senior vice president of commercial renewable products at Neste. “Working together with aviation sector leaders like Boeing is crucial in accelerating SAF usage and production.”

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The Firefly plant located in Harwich, England, will be adapted to convert human feces into SAF of which they are planning to deliver up to 525,000 tons over 15 years starting in 2028.

This initiative is part of Wizz Air’s effort to reduce its carbon emission per passenger/km by 25 percent by 2030. The aviation industry as a whole has set itself a ambitious target to be carbon neutral by the year 2050, and according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 80 percent of the reduction in emissions will be achieved through the use of SAF.

• READ MORE: Ampaire Completes Hybrid-Electric Ground Test Using Pure SAF

In February 2023 Wizz Air announced a similar agreement with Finnish group Neste for the supply of up to 36,000 tons of SAF over the period of three years starting in 2025. Neste MY SAF is produced from renewable waste and residues such as used cooking oil and animal fat waste.

Other airlines such as Swiss, Ryanair, Etihad Airways, and Southwest Airlines have already made similar agreements to source SAF from Neste or other companies.

Lifecycle Carbon-Emissions Neutrality

Currently, the main issue with the sustainability targets pursued by the aviation industry is the lack of large-scale availability of SAF and the supply chain that is supposed to deliver it where it is needed at airports around the world. SAF is intended to work with the existing technology as far as engines and aircraft are concerned and can deliver a reduction of up to 80 percent in greenhouse gas emissions due to the oxygen-positive and carbon dioxide-negative effects during the production phase of its life cycle.

When burned to power jet engines, SAF generates similar amounts of greenhouse gases as traditional oil-based fuels, but since they absorb those gases during their production phase, the net result of their impact on the environment is significantly lower.

• READ MORE: Business Aviation Industry Groups Aim to Speed Adoption of SAF

In addition to that, SAFs are generated from renewable resources, unlike oil-based fuels.

“There are enough biosolids in the U.K. to satisfy half of the mandated SAF demand in 2030” said Paul Hilditch, Firefly’s chief operating officer.

A utility company has committed to providing the biosolid needed by Firefly during the initial pilot phase, the BBC reported. The biosolids are a product of the wastewater treatment process.

“Wizz Air celebrates two decades of transformation this year, transitioning from a small airline into a global leader of sustainable aviation and affordable travel,” said Yvonne Moynihan, corporate and ESG officer at Wizz Air. “Alongside fleet renewal and operational efficiency, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plays a crucial role in reducing carbon emissions from aviation. Our investment in Firefly, which has the potential to reduce our lifecycle emissions by 100,000 tons CO2-eq per year, underscores our commitment to mainstream the use of SAF in our operations by 2030.

“However, achieving our aspiration requires a significant ramp-up of SAF production and deployment. Therefore, we call on policymakers to address barriers to SAF deployment at scale by incentivizing production, providing price support, and embracing additional sustainable feedstocks for biofuel production.”

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared on AirlineGeeks.com.

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The Pearl 10X has been selected by French aircraft manufacturer Dassault for its new Falcon 10X, the company’s ultralong-range flagship.

“We are excited to enter into this important next phase of the engine development program with the start of our flight test campaign,”  Philipp Zeller, senior vice president of Dassault’s business aviation division at Rolls-Royce, said in a statement. “All the tests completed to date confirm the reliability of the engine and show it will meet the performance requirements to power Dassault’s flagship, the Falcon 10X.”

• READ MORE: Rolls-Royce Tests Pearl Engines with 100 Percent Sustainable Aviation Fuel 

As part of the test campaign, the engines are fitted to a Boeing 747-200, which serves as Rolls-Royce’s flying test bed (FTB). 

The Tucson, Arizona-based FTB is capable of having a variety of engines fitted to it “to give them a real-life test run in the air, providing valuable performance data,” the company said. “As the aircraft usually has four engines, we can ensure safety at all times by having one test engine operating alongside three other engines that are already established in service.” 

During the latest round of engine tests, the FTB has five engines, according to the company: the Pearl 10X, a Trent 1000, and three RB211s.

Over the course of the coming months, flight testing will include engine performance and handling checks at various speeds and altitudes, in-flight relights, tests of the nacelle’s anti-icing system, as well as fan vibration tests at various altitudes, Rolls-Royce said.

• READ MORE: Rolls-Royce Confirms All of Its Current Engines Can Run On 100 Percent SAF

In October, Rolls-Royce announced it had successfully completed a series of tests for the Pearl 10X, and its Pearl 15 engines using 100 percent sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The tests, which took place in Germany, “play a leading role in the journey to achieve net-zero flight by 2050,” the company said at the time.

The post Rolls-Royce Launches Flight Testing of Pearl 10X Engine appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

The firm on Thursday announced it successfully completed a hybrid-electric ground test using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from partner Dimensional Energy. The pure, 100 percent ASTM D7566 SAF is produced from electricity and carbon dioxide and was used to fuel Ampaire’s nine-seat Eco Caravan, a modified Cessna 208B Grand Caravan.

The goal of testing was to validate the performance of Dimensional Energy’s pure e-fuel SAF. According to Ampaire, the results “exceeded expectations,” demonstrating a massive increase in energy efficiency compared to traditional jet fuels.

Both Ampaire and Dimensional Energy received funding and support from climate technology investor Elemental Excelerator. According to Ampaire, the investment has helped the partners more than double the efficiency of SAF consumption while driving emissions to near zero.

“By showcasing the transformative efficiency gains achievable through hybrid-electric propulsion, we are driving the future of eco-friendly air travel,” said Kevin Noertker, CEO of Ampaire. “For those already recognizing the potential of SAF, its integration into our hybrid-electric aircraft enhances its appeal even further.”

Ampaire’s Eco Caravan is a hybrid-electric design with a range of 1,100 sm (956 nm) and a payload of 2,500 pounds. In 2022, the manufacturer said the model could be the first electric regional aircraft to fly commercially. Ampaire expects FAA certification this year.

The aircraft is equipped with Ampaire’s proprietary AMP-H570 AMP Drive hybrid-electric propulsion unit. According to the company, the system will reduce fuel consumption and emissions by 50 to 70 percent compared to conventional Pratt & Whitney PT6 engines, which are common on Cessna Caravan turboprops.

Ground tests paired the hybrid-electric propulsion system with Dimensional Energy e-fuels to “reimagine” 100 percent electric flight and address SAF quality and cost concerns, the goal being to enable broader use. According to Ampaire, Dimensional Energy has two projects that will “add significant inventory to the world’s availability of e-fuels.”

“Technology providers have to collaborate beyond innovation and into execution,” said Jason Salfi, CEO of Dimensional Energy. “By combining Dimensional Energy e-fuels with Ampaire’s aircraft technology that can reduce the amount of fuels combusted during flight, we quicken the pace up the steep curve of the energy transition and reduce the need for extraction faster.”

Nonprofit investor Elemental Excelerator provided both Ampaire and Dimensional Energy with project development capital and years of support to scale the companies’ tech. The three partners intend to continue their collaboration and research into sustainable flight.

“[Ampaire and Dimensional Energy’s] innovations reduce pollution and noise in neighborhoods around airports and make possible a cleaner way to fly,” said Dawn Lippert, CEO of Elemental Excelerator.

Ampaire’s recent ground test wasn’t the company’s only milestone in the past few months. In fact, it doesn’t even come close to the firm’s biggest achievement: a 12-hour, 1,375 sm (1,195 nm) flight of its Electric EEL demonstrator. The flight set a high-water mark for hybrid-electric aircraft endurance, eclipsing the company’s previous record.

The EEL is a modified Cessna 337 Skymaster, also equipped with the AMP-H570 AMP Drive, that functions primarily as a testbed aircraft but could also serve owner-flown, charter, and short-haul regional airlines and carriers. It has a 400 sm (348 nm) range and 450-pound payload.

In 2020, Ampaire and the EEL also completed the first trial of a hybrid-electric aircraft along an actual airline route, in partnership with Hawaii’s Mokulele Airlines. The Eco Caravan, meanwhile, made its maiden voyage in 2022.

Ampaire’s largest order for the hybrid-electric design comes from U.K.-based lessor Monte Aircraft, which agreed to order up to 50 Eco Caravans. The firm also has an agreement with Azul Conecta—a subsidiary of Azul, Brazil’s largest airline by passenger volume—to convert six Grand Caravans in its fleet.

Meanwhile, Ampaire is working with NASA on several projects, most notably one that would install its propulsion system aboard a Twin Otter DHC6. It has an agreement with private charter operator WingTips for the conversion of 50 Twin Otters to Eco Otters—another Ampaire concept—in addition to 20 Caravans.

Unsurprisingly, major airlines and manufacturers are ramping up development of SAF as Ampaire matures its tech. Both Gulfstream Aerospace and Virgin Atlantic completed inaugural transatlantic flights fueled entirely by SAF in November. Rolls-Royce that month said all of its current engines can now run on 100 percent SAF.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), SAF production tripled from 2021 to 2022. And with aviation industry groups working to speed its adoption, the dawn of SAF appears to be on the horizon.

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Venture capital firm UP.Partners last week published the 2024 edition of its annual Moving World Report, a deep dive into the movers and shakers in aviation and transportation more broadly. Though the industry’s challenges are steep, the company believes the introduction of new aircraft types—such as electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), hydrogen-powered, and blended wing body designs—offers hope that they can be solved.

“Our goal with this report is to equip industry leaders, entrepreneurs, and policymakers with a comprehensive understanding of these changes, enabling them to effectively navigate and shape the future of mobility,” said Cyrus Sigari, co-founder and managing partner of UP.Partners.

UP.Partners, which holds stakes in a range of mobility-focused startups, estimated that the pilot shortage will grow to 65,000 by 2030. At the same time, transportation is the biggest culprit of U.S. carbon emissions, with aviation contributing an estimated 8 percent within the segment. Based on announced pledges, UP.Partners claims aviation emissions are expected to rise 79 percent between 2020 and 2030—theoretically, that figure would need to be capped at 22 percent to remain in line with global net-zero by 2050 targets.

These issues will need to be addressed quickly. And an influx of new intercity and long-distance air mobility options may be the catalyst.

The Innovation Problem

According to UP.Partners, there’s an “innovation problem” in commercial aviation.

As Stripe CEO Patrick Collison pointed out, the inception of the Boeing 737 design is now closer in time to the Wright Flyer than it is to the present day. At the same time, efficiency gains in carbon-emissions reduction have leveled off over the past 70 years.

According to the report, those gains are due almost entirely to engine development rather than airframe innovation. However, commercial airlines are exploring blended wing body designs—which UP.Partners called the first major airframe innovation during that span—and other sustainable configurations. The U.S. Air Force in August awarded startup JetZero a $250 million contract to develop a blended wing body demonstrator, and Airbus previously announced a similar concept.

Emissions reductions may improve further with the introduction of electric and hydrogen aircraft. The report predicts electric models will hit the market in 2025, followed by hydrogen fuel cell designs in 2030 and hydrogen combustion aircraft in 2040. 

However, that comes with the caveat that electrifying or switching to hydrogen “likely has a limited impact, at a huge cost.”

UP.Partners estimated that electrifying all flights less than two hours could reduce emissions by 28 percent, a respectable figure. But electrifying or using hydrogen for longer flights—which account for the remaining 72 percent of emissions—is not technically or financially feasible with current technology.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to bridge the gap, contributing to 65 percent of emissions reductions by 2050 according to International Air Transport Association (IATA) projections. However, the report estimates that SAF is still 43 percent more expensive than conventional jet fuel. Bringing those costs in line could take more than a decade, it predicted.

UP.Partners also raised concerns that certain SAF commitments may be examples of “greenwashing.” RyanAir, for example, has pledged to obtain about 10 percent of its fuel from SAF by 2030. But the airline does not know exactly where it will come from.

“There isn’t enough cooking oil in the world to power one day of green aviation,” Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said in December.

Electric Aircraft Have Arrived

Producing SAF and other sustainable fuels presents a massive challenge for aviation. But there are plenty of aircraft in development that will use them when the time comes.

In fact, many are already flying. The term drone may conjure up images of buzzing, microwave-sized aircraft. However, many designs resemble small cargo planes, with similar ranges and payloads. 

In 2023, electric drones completed 1 million deliveries. Commercial drone flights, meanwhile, have increased by 135 percent per year since 2018. Today, the aircraft mainly deliver air freight, parcels, and medical cargo. But the report predicts the pilot shortage will only accelerate the technology further, opening up even more use cases.

Adding to the momentum for drone delivery is its declining cost. According to UP.Partners research, the price is about $4 per delivery when a remote pilot is able to monitor multiple drones. That’s nearly one-third the price of a comparable automobile delivery, the firm said.

Per the report, Walmart is the world’s leading developer of drone delivery services outside of the war in Ukraine. In the past two years alone, the retailer completed more than 2,000 U.S. deliveries out of 36 hubs across seven states. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, 1.8 million households are now eligible for drone delivery through Walmart and its partners.

Amazon Prime Air, meanwhile, has faltered. It has now been more than a decade since former CEO Jeff Bezos promised to permeate U.S. skies with drones, but the e-commerce giant has made only a handful of deliveries.

Compared to Walmart, Amazon has a few strategic disadvantages, UP.Partners said. For example, as Walmart partners with leading drone manufacturers and providers such as Zipline, Wing, Flytrex, and DroneUp, Amazon has taken a vertically integrated approach.

And while Walmart has more than 4,600 stores located within 90 percent of the U.S. population, Amazon has around 100 active fulfillment centers. However, Prime Air recently announced an international expansion and a ramp-up of its service in Texas.

As drones take to the skies, eVTOL aircraft may be the next to emerge. According to the report, there is an 18,000-unit global backlog for eVTOL aircraft valued at $111 billion. United Airlines leads the way, with large commitments for air taxis from Archer Aviation and Embraer’s Eve Air Mobility.

EHang, a Chinese manufacturer, completed the world’s first commercial passenger-carrying eVTOL air taxi flight in December, more than a year before the first American firm expects to enter service. But the industry is crowded. Several manufacturers are neck-and-neck on SMG Consulting’s Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) Reality Index, a monthly report that measures a company’s ability to type certify and mass produce AAM aircraft. The top dogs include EHang, Archer, Eve, Joby Aviation, Beta Technologies, and Boeing’s Wisk Aero.

Meanwhile, personal, single-seat eVTOL designs, such as the Pivotal Helix, and “flying cars” capable of driving on the freeway and taking off from the runway, such as the Jetson One, have already entered service.

Automated flight systems, such as those from Xwing, Reliable Robotics, and Merlin Labs, are also approaching certification. And soon, the industry may even introduce humanoid co-pilots.

The arrow is certainly pointing up for drones, eVTOL, and other emerging designs as they attract investments from private firms. But according to the report, the U.S. Department of Defense is the single largest customer of mobility technology. 

Through innovation arm AFWERX, the Air Force is working with a plethora of manufacturers to develop the next generation of aviation technology. Contracted firms include Archer, Beta, Pipistrel, Xwing, and Reliable.

During periods of conflict—a fair characterization of today’s state of play—U.S. military spending and venture capital investment in defense go up, according to data from PitchBook and the Office of Management and Budget. So, it’s possible that wars in Europe and the Middle East will accelerate these projects even further.

Battle for the Final Frontier

Private industry, government, and other stakeholders are coming together to address the issues facing the planet’s skies. But some are looking higher.

2023 was a banner year for commercial space activity. About 13,000 satellites are now in orbit, a number UP.Partners expects to rise to 50,000 in 2030. Satellite constellations, led by SpaceX’s Starlink, have increased tenfold over the past four years. And dollars spent on global space activity have tripled over the past decade, buoyed by growth in commercial ventures.

Orbital launch attempts, meanwhile, have spiked following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with the U.S. and China leading the way. At the same time, the cost to send a satellite to low-Earth orbit (LEO) has declined significantly.

For example, SpaceX claims Starhip—the largest and most powerful rocket ever built—will deliver payloads for about $45 per pound. The spacecraft has attempted two suborbital test flights, both of which resulted in the loss of its rocket and booster and spurred FAA mishap investigations.

Still, SpaceX far surpasses all other launch providers in terms of payload, the report said. If successful, its Starship human landing system (HLS)—which NASA will use to return humans to the moon through the Artemis program—would drastically reduce the cost of lunar payload delivery compared to the Apollo program, from $36 billion to $70 million per ton.

However, UP.Partners worries that the U.S. may fail to lead in the final frontier. Venture capital investment in space startups has risen almost 3,500 percent over the past decade. But most space special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) have fared poorly. For almost all of them, stock price as a percentage of valuation has declined more than 50 percent.

The report also raised concerns around the Artemis program. NASA in December delayed the Artemis III moon mission from 2025 to 2026, in part due to the issues facing Starship. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk estimated each lunar landing will require eight Starship launches to perform cryogenic refilling in orbit. But the Government Accountability Office predicts it will be double.

Any delay to Artemis or other U.S. space initiatives could open the door for China. The Eastern superpower is quickly accelerating its commercial space program, with companies such as Space Pioneer and Deep Blue already landing reusable rockets. Blue Origin and Stoke Space are among the U.S. firms developing similar spacecraft.

A Moving World

The issues facing aviation are not insignificant, nor are they easy—or cheap—to solve. The industry will soon need to complement or supplement thousands of pilots, eliminate significant  quantities of carbon, and maintain aircraft performance and efficiency while doing it.

The good news is that pressure makes diamonds. While it may not be enough just yet, hundreds of startups are pouring billions of dollars into new airframes, fuels, and other technologies.

However, regulation will need to catch up with innovation. The FAA has finalized some early drone regulations, for example, but still needs to address flight beyond the pilot’s visual line of sight (BVLOS). AAM regulations, meanwhile, are still in a primitive state—only initial guidelines have been released.

For the U.S.—or any nation—to lead aviation into a greener, more efficient future, regulators will have just as large a role to play as the manufacturers themselves.

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